When the Argentine economy collapsed in 2001 and the
Argentine peso ended it’s 12 years pegged to the dollar, the financial sector
took a big hit.
Every single bank reported monumental losses, and Bank Boston
recorded losses of around U$D 2 Billion.
At that time the entire system was collapsing, people where
rioting the banks, their windows had to be covered with metal planks to protect
them.
The assets held in the financial system was shrinking by the
day.
Foreign banks, in most cases simply left their local
subsidiaries to fend for themselves, uncertain of the outcome of the crisis.
Some others simply took the loss and closed their Argentine operations all
together.
So…..why are our eyes in the Argentine financial sector now?
Simply put, because we need to be ahead of the curve, and
many indicators are showing very interesting signs.
We have been paying close attention to the sector for a
little over a year now, and everything shows that we were right.
Most banks reported profits last year, for the first time in
years. Deposits are growing at a good pace and credit is showing sings of
recovery.
The exposure of banks to the public sector is shrinking,
slowly but surely.
All positive signs.
The fact that headquarters of foreign banks are injecting
capital again in their Argentine branches. Most private sector banks also saw their
capital grow.
Most of the executives in the sector are optimistic, and the
talk on the street is that the banking industry in Argentina is getting ready for
prime time again.
The economy has been seeing a remarkable come back, catching
most international organizations by surprise.
Remarkably this comeback has been possible without extreme
measures. It is true that some things should have been different, and there is
still a long way to go for the country, but it is also true that Argentina has
not seen the kind of switch from one extreme to the other that is so common in
Latin America.
The government might be inking agreements to keep inflation
low, but that is a long way for the old recipe of simply freezing prices by
law.